Back the OverlayBack the OverlayOur quant model prices every runner in Australian racing. When a bookmaker offers longer odds than a horse's true chance, that's an overlay. Members get the bet, the stake, and the reasoning. Nothing else.
Every day our system rates every runner at every Australian meeting on form, ratings, market movement and hundreds of other inputs, then turns each horse into one number: its true price.
A model trained on years of Australian racing prices the whole field, then reframes the market to a fair 100% book. No favourites bias, no tips. Just probabilities.
The model's price is compared to live TAB and Sportsbet fixed odds. Most runners are priced about right. A few aren't. When the market offers meaningfully more than the true price, that's an overlay.
Qualified overlays are posted to the members' channel the day before the race: horse, bookmaker, current price, model price, and a stake sized to a target collect. You place it in one tap.
Every price is a claim about probability. $4.00 means "this horse wins 25% of the time." If the bookmaker says 25% but the true chance is 33%, the price is simply wrong, and a wrong price in your favour is worth money, regardless of whether this particular horse wins today.
Expected value (EV) is how much a bet returns on average per dollar staked. Backing a 33% chance at $4.00 returns $1.33 per $1, a 33% edge. Do that once, anything can happen. Do it hundreds of times and the average takes over: that's the entire business model of every bookmaker, run in reverse.
We only post bets the model rates at EV above +5%, at prices between $1.60 and $20. The price is checked against the live market right before the bet goes out — but prices move, and if it shortens after you see it the edge shrinks with it. That is a real cost, and we've measured it rather than pretending it away.