Back the OverlayBack the OverlayOur quant model prices every runner in Australian racing. When a bookmaker offers longer odds than a horse's true chance — an overlay — members get the bet, the stake, and the reasoning. Nothing else.
Every day our system rates every runner at every Australian meeting — form, ratings, market movement, hundreds of inputs — and turns each horse into one number: its true price.
An XGBoost model trained on years of Australian racing prices the whole field, then reframes the market to a fair 100% book. No favourites bias, no tips — just probabilities.
The model's price is compared to live TAB and Sportsbet fixed odds. Most runners are priced about right. A few aren't. When the market offers meaningfully more than the true price — that's an overlay.
Qualified overlays are posted to the members' channel the day before the race — horse, bookmaker, current price, model price, and a stake sized to a target collect. You place it in one tap.
Every price is a claim about probability. $4.00 means "this horse wins 25% of the time." If the bookmaker says 25% but the true chance is 33%, the price is simply wrong — and a wrong price in your favour is worth money, regardless of whether this particular horse wins today.
Expected value (EV) is how much a bet returns on average per dollar staked. Backing a 33% chance at $4.00 returns $1.33 per $1 — a 33% edge. Do that once, anything can happen. Do it hundreds of times and the average takes over: that's the entire business model of every bookmaker, run in reverse.
We only post bets with EV above +10% at prices of $3.00 or better — verified against the live price seconds before betting, so a shortened price never sneaks through.